Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers
<p>Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (<span class="inline-formula">O<sub>2</sub></span>) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-04-01
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| Series: | Biogeosciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2061/2020/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine
ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them.
Temperature, pH, oxygen (<span class="inline-formula">O<sub>2</sub></span>) and net primary production (NPP) are
commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the
potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a
comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modeling framework to
show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global
scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are
distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these
drivers. Maximum potential predictability (<span class="inline-formula">>10</span> years) is found
at the surface for temperature and <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>2</sub></span> in the Southern Ocean and for
temperature, <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>2</sub></span> and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean
overturning structures with “memory” or inertia with enhanced predictability
in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially
predictable in the Arctic Ocean at the surface. In contrast, minimum
predictability is simulated for NPP (<span class="inline-formula"><1</span> years) in the Southern
Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>2</sub></span> and pH increases
with depth below the thermocline to more than 10 years, except in the
tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, where predictability is also 3 to
5 years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface)
and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem
drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in
developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |