Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto m...
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doaj-5491719875ba4bbfa194ac7bb8e385222020-11-25T02:33:25ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332019-11-01101273510.3390/atmos10120735atmos10120735Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling ApproachMónica Rodrigues0Paula Santana1Alfredo Rocha2Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, 3004-530 Coimbra, PortugalDepartment of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, 3004-530 Coimbra, PortugalDepartment of Physics and Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-093 Aveiro, PortugalClimate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046−2065) and long-term (2080−2099) were compared with the reference period (1986−2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045−2065 and 2081−2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045−2065 and −0.69% for 2081−2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046−2065, and to 0.27% during 2081−2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/12/735climate changemortalitytemperature extremesdistributed lag non-linear model (dlnm)projectionswrf modelportugal |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Mónica Rodrigues Paula Santana Alfredo Rocha |
spellingShingle |
Mónica Rodrigues Paula Santana Alfredo Rocha Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach Atmosphere climate change mortality temperature extremes distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm) projections wrf model portugal |
author_facet |
Mónica Rodrigues Paula Santana Alfredo Rocha |
author_sort |
Mónica Rodrigues |
title |
Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach |
title_short |
Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach |
title_full |
Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach |
title_fullStr |
Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach |
title_sort |
projections of temperature-attributable deaths in portuguese metropolitan areas: a time-series modelling approach |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Atmosphere |
issn |
2073-4433 |
publishDate |
2019-11-01 |
description |
Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046−2065) and long-term (2080−2099) were compared with the reference period (1986−2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045−2065 and 2081−2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045−2065 and −0.69% for 2081−2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046−2065, and to 0.27% during 2081−2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management. |
topic |
climate change mortality temperature extremes distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm) projections wrf model portugal |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/12/735 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT monicarodrigues projectionsoftemperatureattributabledeathsinportuguesemetropolitanareasatimeseriesmodellingapproach AT paulasantana projectionsoftemperatureattributabledeathsinportuguesemetropolitanareasatimeseriesmodellingapproach AT alfredorocha projectionsoftemperatureattributabledeathsinportuguesemetropolitanareasatimeseriesmodellingapproach |
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