Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto m...

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Main Authors: Mónica Rodrigues, Paula Santana, Alfredo Rocha
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2019-11-01
Series:Atmosphere
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/12/735
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spelling doaj-5491719875ba4bbfa194ac7bb8e385222020-11-25T02:33:25ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332019-11-01101273510.3390/atmos10120735atmos10120735Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling ApproachMónica Rodrigues0Paula Santana1Alfredo Rocha2Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, 3004-530 Coimbra, PortugalDepartment of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, 3004-530 Coimbra, PortugalDepartment of Physics and Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-093 Aveiro, PortugalClimate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046−2065) and long-term (2080−2099) were compared with the reference period (1986−2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045−2065 and 2081−2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045−2065 and −0.69% for 2081−2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046−2065, and to 0.27% during 2081−2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/12/735climate changemortalitytemperature extremesdistributed lag non-linear model (dlnm)projectionswrf modelportugal
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Mónica Rodrigues
Paula Santana
Alfredo Rocha
spellingShingle Mónica Rodrigues
Paula Santana
Alfredo Rocha
Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
Atmosphere
climate change
mortality
temperature extremes
distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm)
projections
wrf model
portugal
author_facet Mónica Rodrigues
Paula Santana
Alfredo Rocha
author_sort Mónica Rodrigues
title Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_short Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_full Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_fullStr Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_full_unstemmed Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_sort projections of temperature-attributable deaths in portuguese metropolitan areas: a time-series modelling approach
publisher MDPI AG
series Atmosphere
issn 2073-4433
publishDate 2019-11-01
description Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046−2065) and long-term (2080−2099) were compared with the reference period (1986−2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045−2065 and 2081−2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045−2065 and −0.69% for 2081−2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046−2065, and to 0.27% during 2081−2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.
topic climate change
mortality
temperature extremes
distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm)
projections
wrf model
portugal
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/12/735
work_keys_str_mv AT monicarodrigues projectionsoftemperatureattributabledeathsinportuguesemetropolitanareasatimeseriesmodellingapproach
AT paulasantana projectionsoftemperatureattributabledeathsinportuguesemetropolitanareasatimeseriesmodellingapproach
AT alfredorocha projectionsoftemperatureattributabledeathsinportuguesemetropolitanareasatimeseriesmodellingapproach
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