Political Value of Expectations in Economy

• Main Author: Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Economic Research Institute of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 2020-10-01
• Series: Prostranstvennaâ Èkonomika
• Subjects: economic expectations; state program of development; institutional havens; investments; personal income; political behavior
• Online Access: http://spatial-economics.com/eng/arkhiv-nomerov/2020-3/967-

The author regards the interconnection between the expectations from the implementation of a new economic policy as concerns the Far Eastern Federal District and changes in the traditional political behaviour in the region. It is shown that defiant deliberateness of executing legal procedures is only a trigger for turning the political inertia into civil protests. The hypothesis is made that the cause for such a transformation is the accumulated negative expectations. Tendencies for formation of positive economic expectations as concerns the economic development, improvement of the level and quality of life in Far Eastern Russia, are outlined. Economic and institutional parameters of state programs and regulatory documents have been analyzed that determine the intensity and vector in the expectations of the people and the regulatory authorities. It is demonstrated that the parameters of expectations of these aggregates are diverse. The discrepancies between the program and actual indicators of the state program as to macro economic (i.e. describing the unbiased change in the regional development conditions) and regulatory (based on a list of ‘intentions’), are revealed. It is explained why satisfactory effects in the implementation of regulatory intentions do not generate the response in shape of accelerating economy dynamics, improving the socio-economic development of the region, growth of the quality of life and actual resident population stability. The assumption is made that a lack of formation of such a response is generating the transformation of positive expectations into negative ones that leads to the emergence of the spatially localized ground for a cardinal change from political inertia to protest behavior