Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling

Common approaches to large flood management are Natural Water Retention Measures and detention basins. In this study, a Partial Least Squares-Path Model (PLS-PM) was defined to set up a relationship between dam wall heights and biophysical parameters, in critical flood risk zones of continental Port...

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Main Authors: Daniela Patrícia Salgado Terêncio, Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes, Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes, João Paulo Moura, Fernando António Leal Pacheco
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2019-04-01
Series:Water
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/4/684
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spelling doaj-52e779c118254ddcb4036c988bf9eddf2020-11-24T20:43:27ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412019-04-0111468410.3390/w11040684w11040684Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path ModelingDaniela Patrícia Salgado Terêncio0Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes1Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes2João Paulo Moura3Fernando António Leal Pacheco4Centro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, PortugalCentro de Química de Vila Real, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, PortugalCommon approaches to large flood management are Natural Water Retention Measures and detention basins. In this study, a Partial Least Squares-Path Model (PLS-PM) was defined to set up a relationship between dam wall heights and biophysical parameters, in critical flood risk zones of continental Portugal. The purpose was to verify if the heights responded to changes in the biophysical variables, and in those cases to forecast landscape changes capable to reduce the heights towards sustainable values (e.g., <8 m). The biophysical parameters comprised a diversity of watershed characteristics, such as land use and geology, surface runoff, climate indicators and the dam heights. The results have shown that terrain slope (w > 0.5), rainfall (w > 0.4) and sedimentary rocks (w > 0.5) are among the most important variables in the model. Changes in these parameters would trigger visible changes in the dam wall height, but they are not easily or rapidly modified by human activity. On the other hand, the parameters forest occupation and runoff coefficient seem to play a less prominent role in the model (w < 0.1), even though they can be significantly modified by human intervention. Consequently, in a scenario of land cover change where forest occupation is increased by 30% and impermeable surfaces are decreased by 30%, interferences in the dam heights were small. These results open a discussion about the feasibility to mitigate large floods using non-structural measures such as reforestation.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/4/684flood risk attenuationPLS-SEMdetention basinmitigation strategieslandscape change
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Daniela Patrícia Salgado Terêncio
Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes
Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes
João Paulo Moura
Fernando António Leal Pacheco
spellingShingle Daniela Patrícia Salgado Terêncio
Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes
Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes
João Paulo Moura
Fernando António Leal Pacheco
Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling
Water
flood risk attenuation
PLS-SEM
detention basin
mitigation strategies
landscape change
author_facet Daniela Patrícia Salgado Terêncio
Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes
Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes
João Paulo Moura
Fernando António Leal Pacheco
author_sort Daniela Patrícia Salgado Terêncio
title Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling
title_short Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling
title_full Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling
title_fullStr Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling
title_full_unstemmed Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling
title_sort can land cover changes mitigate large floods? a reflection based on partial least squares-path modeling
publisher MDPI AG
series Water
issn 2073-4441
publishDate 2019-04-01
description Common approaches to large flood management are Natural Water Retention Measures and detention basins. In this study, a Partial Least Squares-Path Model (PLS-PM) was defined to set up a relationship between dam wall heights and biophysical parameters, in critical flood risk zones of continental Portugal. The purpose was to verify if the heights responded to changes in the biophysical variables, and in those cases to forecast landscape changes capable to reduce the heights towards sustainable values (e.g., <8 m). The biophysical parameters comprised a diversity of watershed characteristics, such as land use and geology, surface runoff, climate indicators and the dam heights. The results have shown that terrain slope (w > 0.5), rainfall (w > 0.4) and sedimentary rocks (w > 0.5) are among the most important variables in the model. Changes in these parameters would trigger visible changes in the dam wall height, but they are not easily or rapidly modified by human activity. On the other hand, the parameters forest occupation and runoff coefficient seem to play a less prominent role in the model (w < 0.1), even though they can be significantly modified by human intervention. Consequently, in a scenario of land cover change where forest occupation is increased by 30% and impermeable surfaces are decreased by 30%, interferences in the dam heights were small. These results open a discussion about the feasibility to mitigate large floods using non-structural measures such as reforestation.
topic flood risk attenuation
PLS-SEM
detention basin
mitigation strategies
landscape change
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/4/684
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