Systematization of payroll fund dynamics factors based on the recurrent analysis of cyclic trends of regional economy development

• Main Authors: Tatyana Vasil’evna Miroliubova, Oksana Vyacheslavovna Butorina, Galina Vasil'evna Kutergina
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Perm State University 2019-12-01
• Series: Вестник Пермского университета: Серия Экономика
• Online Access: http://economics.psu.ru/index.php/econ/article/view/288

The importance to classify factors affecting payroll amount on the recurrent approach basis of the analysis of cyclic dynamics in regional social and economic systems is determined by a significant amount of labour costs in GDP and gross regional product. The latter are used as indicators for the identification of production cycle stages. Indicators characterizing production cycle stages that are conventionally used (GDP, GRP, the number of organizations, the balanced financial result, the number of employees in economy) do not fully reflect the recurrent relationships between production, social and structural processes in the modern macroeconomic cycle. We suggest supplementing the production cycle analysis with the assessment of payroll dynamics. For this purpose factors of payroll fund dynamics have been systematized at the regional economy scale, they also have been classified considering their endogenous and exogenous character. In particular external factors are determined by socio-economic trends in Russia in general, internal ones are caused by the peculiarities of socio-economic development of a particular region. The methodological feature of the original classification suggested by the authors is its multilevel character and emphasis on the recurrent dependencies analysis. The factors of payroll fund dynamics and GDP have been analyzed for 2015 – 2018 in Perm krai and in several regions of the Volga and Ural Federal districts close to the structure of the economy of Perm krai. The results indicate a multidirectional impact of the factors of the payroll fund on the economy of the region in general and certain economic activities in particular. Thus, we have revealed that the inflation level, the mount and structure of taxes that significantly decrease the base of the tax on personal income and at the same time increase the actual income of the population are among those external factors that significantly impact the payroll fund. The assessment of internal factors has revealed that economic structure of Perm krai significantly influence the dynamics of payroll fund. The changes in the structure affect the GRP salary amount, payroll fund per an employee in the regional economy according to the economic activity type and in shadow economy. The research results will further complement the tools and methods of forecasting and management of cyclical dynamics in the economy of the region on the basis of identification of recurrent dependencies between indicators and phases of production, social and other components of the modern macroeconomic cycle.