Universal Model of Local Epidemics Development, Caused by Particularly Dangerous Infection Agents

• Main Authors: A. G. Bachinsky, L. F. Nizolenko
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Federal Government Health Institution, Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe” 2014-06-01
• Series: Проблемы особо опасных инфекций
• Subjects: эпидемия; математическая модель; особо опасные инфекции; меры противодействия; epidemics; mathematical model; particularly dangerous infections; countermeasures
• Online Access: https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/136

Objective of the work is to demonstrate some peculiarities of functioning of the software model of epidemics designed at the premises of SSC VB “Vector”. This model is supposed to be a universal one and appropriate for prediction of any acute infectious disease epidemics development. Basic routes of infection are either an unspecified external source or random contacts between people irrespective of gender, age, and other socio-demographic characteristics of cohorts. The model assumes presetting the spectrum of key anti-epidemic measures such as preventive vaccination and the one carried out in situ, as well as allocating and isolation (observation) of the infection cases, contact persons, and those suspected for a disease, and quarantine. The software model is available from http://vector-epimod.ru. Investigated is the impact of various resource limitations on the development of smallpox epidemics in a residential area - a city with a million-plus population.