Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature a...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Danladi Ali, Michael Yohanna, Puwu Markus Ijasini, Musa Bulus Garkida
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2018-03-01
Series:Alexandria Engineering Journal
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016816303404
Description
Summary:Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity) in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter
ISSN:1110-0168