Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia

Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia

Study region: This study focuses on Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia, and it is characterized by a typical dry biogeophysical environment. Study focus: In recent years, recurrent droughts are having an adverse impact on agricultural production and water resources in northern Ethiopia. Climate...

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Main Authors: Samuale Tesfaye, Gebeyehu Taye, Emiru Birhane, Sjoerd EATM van der Zee
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2019-04-01
Series:Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818302866
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spelling doaj-4f73a7228b694cf883c10c1234c1ba8d2020-11-25T02:16:39ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182019-04-0122Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern EthiopiaSamuale Tesfaye0Gebeyehu Taye1Emiru Birhane2Sjoerd EATM van der Zee3Soil Physics and Land Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, the Netherlands; Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia; Corresponding author at: Soil Physics and Land Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, the Netherlands.Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, EthiopiaDepartment of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia; Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, No-1432, Ås, NorwaySoil Physics and Land Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, the Netherlands; School of Chemistry, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3800, AustraliaStudy region: This study focuses on Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia, and it is characterized by a typical dry biogeophysical environment. Study focus: In recent years, recurrent droughts are having an adverse impact on agricultural production and water resources in northern Ethiopia. Climate change through changes on temperature, precipitation and streamflow, may further strain this critical situation. This study has investigated the observed (1961–2014) and potential (2006–2099) hydro-climatic changes in Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are used to downscale temperature and precipitation predicated by 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) as well as the projected streamflow changes for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenario. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate that the variability of climatic factors as temperature and precipitation was observed to be both spatially and temporally diverse for the considered Tekeze river basin. Accordingly, the response of streamflow was also spatiotemporally complex. GCMs were evaluated with several performance indictors regarding patterns in hydro-climatic variables. The analysis showed the superiority of the multimodel ensemble means compared with individual GCM output. GCM projections for the 21century indicate a gradual reductions in streamflow attributed to the combined effect of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. The persistent increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation will have negative impacts on water availability and agriculture, hence site specific adaptation strategies are necessary. Keywords: Climate change, Temperature, Precipitation, Streamflow, GCM, Artificial neural networkshttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818302866
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Samuale Tesfaye
Gebeyehu Taye
Emiru Birhane
Sjoerd EATM van der Zee
spellingShingle Samuale Tesfaye
Gebeyehu Taye
Emiru Birhane
Sjoerd EATM van der Zee
Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
author_facet Samuale Tesfaye
Gebeyehu Taye
Emiru Birhane
Sjoerd EATM van der Zee
author_sort Samuale Tesfaye
title Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia
title_short Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia
title_full Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia
title_fullStr Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia
title_sort observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of northern ethiopia
publisher Elsevier
series Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
issn 2214-5818
publishDate 2019-04-01
description Study region: This study focuses on Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia, and it is characterized by a typical dry biogeophysical environment. Study focus: In recent years, recurrent droughts are having an adverse impact on agricultural production and water resources in northern Ethiopia. Climate change through changes on temperature, precipitation and streamflow, may further strain this critical situation. This study has investigated the observed (1961–2014) and potential (2006–2099) hydro-climatic changes in Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are used to downscale temperature and precipitation predicated by 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) as well as the projected streamflow changes for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenario. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate that the variability of climatic factors as temperature and precipitation was observed to be both spatially and temporally diverse for the considered Tekeze river basin. Accordingly, the response of streamflow was also spatiotemporally complex. GCMs were evaluated with several performance indictors regarding patterns in hydro-climatic variables. The analysis showed the superiority of the multimodel ensemble means compared with individual GCM output. GCM projections for the 21century indicate a gradual reductions in streamflow attributed to the combined effect of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. The persistent increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation will have negative impacts on water availability and agriculture, hence site specific adaptation strategies are necessary. Keywords: Climate change, Temperature, Precipitation, Streamflow, GCM, Artificial neural networks
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818302866
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AT gebeyehutaye observedandmodelsimulatedtwentyfirstcenturyhydroclimaticchangeofnorthernethiopia
AT emirubirhane observedandmodelsimulatedtwentyfirstcenturyhydroclimaticchangeofnorthernethiopia
AT sjoerdeatmvanderzee observedandmodelsimulatedtwentyfirstcenturyhydroclimaticchangeofnorthernethiopia
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