Short-Run Asset Selection using a Logistic Model

• Main Authors: Walter Gonçalves Junior, Fábio Gallo Garcia, William Eid Junior, Luciana Ribeiro Chalela
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Brazilian Society of Finance 2011-06-01
• Series: Revista Brasileira de Finanças
• Subjects: Financial indicators; financial market; predictors; returns predictability; market efficiency
• Online Access: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/rbfin/article/view/2588/2217

Investors constantly look for significant predictors and accurate models to forecast future results, whose occasional efficacy end up being neutralized by market efficiency. Regardless, such predictors are widely used for seeking better (and more unique) perceptions. This paper aims to investigate to what extent some of the most notorious indicators have discriminatory power to select stocks, and if it is feasible with such variables to build models that could anticipate those with good performance. In order to do that, logistical regressions were conducted with stocks traded at Bovespa using the selected indicators as explanatory variables. Investigated in this study were the outputs of Bovespa Index, liquidity, the Sharpe Ratio, ROE, MB, size and age evidenced to be significant predictors. Also examined were half-year, logistical models, which were adjusted in order to check the potential acceptable discriminatory power for the asset selection.