Analysis and Forecast of Grain Supply and Demand in China’s thirteen-five Period

• Main Authors: Shi Wei-Ya, Yang Tie-jun, Liang Yi-Tao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: EDP Sciences 2016-01-01
• Series: ITM Web of Conferences
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/itmconf/20160709003

In recent years, the demand and supply of grain has dramatically changed. The paper uses theintelligent information processing method to analyse grain supply and demand of China. The gray model andBack Propagation neural network are used to forecast the trend of grain supply and demand in the thirteen-fiveperiod. The result shows that both grain supply and demand will increase in long trend, but grain demand hasmore than grain supply. The forecasting grain supply growth ratio will be separately 0.88% and 0.79%, the grain demand will be increased 32.2% and 19.5% in 2020 using the grey model and BP, compared with the supply and demand in 2014. At last, the suggestions are given. In order to guarantee the grain safety, scientific method should be used to monitor and analysis the grain market.