Risk factors for disease progression in COVID-19 patients

• Main Authors: Min Cheol Chang, Yu-Kyung Park, Bong-Ok Kim, Donghwi Park
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2020-06-01
• Series: BMC Infectious Diseases
• Subjects: Coronavirus disease; Risk factor: symptom aggravation; Chilling; Fever; Diabetes
• Online Access: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-020-05144-x

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading worldwide. Although 10–20% of patients with COVID-19 have severe symptoms, little is known about the risk factors related to the aggravation of COVID-19 symptoms from asymptomatic or mild to severe disease states. Methods This retrospective study included 211 patients who were asymptomatic or with mild presentations of COVID-19. We evaluated the differences in demographic and clinical data between the cured (discharged to home) and transferred (aggravated to severe-stage COVID-19) groups. Results A multivariate logistic analysis showed that body temperature, chills, initial chest X-ray findings, and the presence of diabetes were significantly associated with predicting the progression to severe stage of COVID-19 (p < 0.05). The odds ratio of transfer in patients with COVID-19 increased by 12.7-fold for abnormal findings such as haziness or consolidation in initial chest X-ray, 6.32-fold for initial symptom of chills, and 64.1-fold for diabetes. Conclusions Even if patients are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, clinicians should closely observe patients with COVID-19 presenting with chills, body temperature > 37.5 °C, findings of pneumonia in chest X-ray, or diabetes.