| Summary: | Effects of climatic changes in transitional ecosystems are often not linear, with some areas likely experiencing faster or more intense responses, which something important to consider in the perspective of climate forecasting. In this study of the Venice lagoon, time series of the past decade were used, and primary productivity was estimated from hourly oxygen data using a published model. Temporal and spatial patterns of water temperature, salinity and productivity time series were identified by applying clustering analysis. Phytoplankton and nutrient data from long-term surveys were correlated to primary productivity model outputs. pmax, the maximum oxygen production rate in a given day, was found to positively correlate with plankton variables measured in surveys. Clustering analysis showed the occurrence of summer heatwaves in 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2018 and three warm prolonged summers (2012, 2017, 2019) coincided with lower summer pmax values. Spatial effects in terms of temperature were found with segregation between confined and open areas, although the patterns varied from year to year. Production and respiration differences showed that the lagoon, despite seasonality, was overall heterotrophic, with internal water bodies having greater values of heterotrophy. Warm, dry years with high salinity had lower degrees of summer autotrophy.
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