Measuring the Impact of Physical Geographical Factors on the Use of Coastal Zones Based on Bayesian Networks

• Main Authors: Eglė Baltranaitė, Loreta Kelpšaitė-Rimkienė, Ramūnas Povilanskas, Ilona Šakurova, Vitalijus Kondrat
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021-06-01
• Series: Sustainability
• Subjects: Benford’s law; Bayesian Networks; coastal tourism; sustainable coastal management
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/13/7173

Coastal regions of the Baltic Sea are among the most intensively used worldwide, resulting in a need for a holistic management approach. Therefore, there is a need for strategies that even out the seasonality, which would ensure a better utilization of natural resources and infrastructure and improve the social and economic conditions. To assess the effectiveness of coastal zone planning processes concerning sustainable tourism and to identify and substantiate significant physical geographical factors impacting the sustainability of South Baltic seaside resorts, several data sets from previous studies were compiled. Seeking to improve the coastal zone’s ecological sustainability, economic efficiency, and social equality, a qualitative study (content analysis of planning documents) and a quantitative survey of tourists’ needs expressed on a social media platform and in the form of a survey, as well as long-term hydrometeorological data, were used. Furthermore, a Bayesian Network framework was used to combine knowledge from these different sources. We present an approach to identifying the social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the sustainability of coastal resorts. The results of this study may be used to advise local governments on a broad spectrum of Integrated Coastal Management matters: planning the development of the beaches and addressing the seasonality of use, directing investments to improve the quality of the beaches and protect them from storm erosion, and maintaining the sand quality and beach infrastructure. The lessons learned can be applied to further coastal zone management research by utilizing stakeholders and expert opinion in quantified current beliefs.