We expect stocks to rise, but we do not know when and which ones: Excessive optimism in predicting future stock indices returns
In this study, we analyze whether: 1) financial professionals manifest lower excessive optimism in predicting future stock indices returns; 2) excessive optimism occurs more when predicting future returns of indices reporting profits than indices reporting losses 3) more long-term predictions are mo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Slovak Academy of Sciences, Centre of Social and Psychological Sciences
2017-07-01
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| Series: | Studia Psychologica |
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| Online Access: | http://www.studiapsychologica.com/uploads/GREZO_SP_2_vol.59_2017_pp.113-126.pdf |
| Summary: | In this study, we analyze whether: 1) financial professionals manifest lower excessive optimism in predicting future stock indices returns; 2) excessive optimism occurs more when predicting future returns of indices reporting profits than indices reporting losses 3) more long-term predictions are more optimistic than short-term predictions. Three groups of participants (n = 251) – investment managers, financial advisors, and lay men predicted future returns of six stock indices in three forecasting horizons by estimating the 95% confidence intervals. The results showed a high inaccuracy in all three groups. The most accurate group was a group of investment managers, followed by lay men and advisors. We also found that 93% of all incorrect predictions were over-optimistic and excessive optimism was much higher when forecasting stock indices that reported profits in the recent past. T he results of this research did not confirm previous findings about inverse effect of expertise in predicting future returns of financial assets. |
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| ISSN: | 0039-3320 2585-8815 |