Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis

Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis

Methods for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis were implemented. The probability of a collision was assessed using two methods: the Monte Carlo method, and the second one, utilizing a ratio between the interval of values of orbital elements, leading to a collision, and the confide...

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Main Authors: A. E. Derevyanka, A. F. Zausaev
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Samara State Technical University 2012-06-01
Series:Vestnik Samarskogo Gosudarstvennogo Tehničeskogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Fiziko-Matematičeskie Nauki
Online Access:http://mi.mathnet.ru/eng/vsgtu1058
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spelling doaj-46f685d373ed4be0b94611659e29607b2020-11-25T00:49:13ZengSamara State Technical UniversityVestnik Samarskogo Gosudarstvennogo Tehničeskogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Fiziko-Matematičeskie Nauki1991-86152310-70812012-06-012(27)19219610.14498/vsgtu1058 Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis A. E. DerevyankaA. F. ZausaevMethods for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis were implemented. The probability of a collision was assessed using two methods: the Monte Carlo method, and the second one, utilizing a ratio between the interval of values of orbital elements, leading to a collision, and the confidence intervals of orbital elements. It was established that the variation in the semimajor axis makes the main contribution to the estimation of the impact probability. The expected date and the estimate of the probability of collision of asteroid Apophis and Earth were computed. http://mi.mathnet.ru/eng/vsgtu1058
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author A. E. Derevyanka
A. F. Zausaev
spellingShingle A. E. Derevyanka
A. F. Zausaev
Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis
Vestnik Samarskogo Gosudarstvennogo Tehničeskogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Fiziko-Matematičeskie Nauki
author_facet A. E. Derevyanka
A. F. Zausaev
author_sort A. E. Derevyanka
title Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis
title_short Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis
title_full Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis
title_fullStr Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis
title_full_unstemmed Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis
title_sort comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid apophis
publisher Samara State Technical University
series Vestnik Samarskogo Gosudarstvennogo Tehničeskogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Fiziko-Matematičeskie Nauki
issn 1991-8615
2310-7081
publishDate 2012-06-01
description Methods for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis were implemented. The probability of a collision was assessed using two methods: the Monte Carlo method, and the second one, utilizing a ratio between the interval of values of orbital elements, leading to a collision, and the confidence intervals of orbital elements. It was established that the variation in the semimajor axis makes the main contribution to the estimation of the impact probability. The expected date and the estimate of the probability of collision of asteroid Apophis and Earth were computed.
url http://mi.mathnet.ru/eng/vsgtu1058
work_keys_str_mv AT aederevyanka comparativeanalysisofmathematicalmodelsforestimatingtheimpactprobabilityofasteroidapophis
AT afzausaev comparativeanalysisofmathematicalmodelsforestimatingtheimpactprobabilityofasteroidapophis
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