Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe
There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severity and frequency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of climate change. In order to plan suitable adaptation strategies it is important for decision makers to know how drought conditions will develop at regional scales....
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/85/2014/hess-18-85-2014.pdf |
| Summary: | There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severity
and frequency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of climate
change. In order to plan suitable adaptation strategies it is important for
decision makers to know how drought conditions will develop at regional
scales. This paper therefore addresses the issue of future developments in
streamflow drought characteristics across Europe. Through offline coupling
of a hydrological model with an ensemble of bias-corrected climate
simulations (IPCC SRES A1B) and a water use scenario (Economy First), long-term (1961–2100) ensemble streamflow simulations are generated that account
for changes in climate, and the uncertainty therein, and in water
consumption. Using extreme value analysis we derive minimum flow and deficit
indices and evaluate how the magnitude and severity of low-flow conditions
may evolve throughout the 21st century. This analysis shows that
streamflow droughts will become more severe and persistent in many parts of
Europe due to climate change, except for northern and northeastern parts of
Europe. In particular, southern regions will face strong reductions in low
flows. Future water use will aggravate the situation by 10–30% in
southern Europe, whereas in some sub-regions in western, central and eastern
Europe a climate-driven signal of reduced droughts may be reversed due to
intensive water use. The multi-model ensemble projections of more frequent
and severe streamflow droughts in the south and decreasing drought hazard in
the north are highly significant, while the projected changes are more
dissonant in a transition zone in between. |
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| ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |