Global Dynamics and Applications of an Epidemiological Model for Hepatitis C Virus Transmission in China
An epidemiological model is proposed and studied to understand the transmission dynamics and prevalence of HCV infection in China. Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number R0 provides a threshold value determining whether the disease dies out or not. Two Lyapunov functions...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Hindawi Limited
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/543029 |
| Summary: | An epidemiological model is proposed and studied to understand the
transmission dynamics and prevalence of HCV infection in China.
Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number
R0 provides a threshold value determining whether the disease
dies out or not. Two Lyapunov functions are constructed to prove the
global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and the endemic
equilibria, respectively. Based on data reported by the National Health and
Family Planning Commission of China, the basic reproduction number
is estimated as approximately R0=1.9897, which is much less than
that for the model when a treatment strategy is not considered. An
ever-increasing HCV infection is predicted in the near future.
Numerical simulations, performed to investigate the potential effect
of antiviral treatment, show that increasing the treatment cure rate
and enlarging the treatment rate for patients at the chronic
stage remain effective in reducing the number of new infections and the
equilibrium prevalence. The finding suggests that treatment measures
are significantly beneficial for disease control in terms of reducing
new infections and, in particular, more attention should be paid to
treatment for patients at the chronic stage. |
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| ISSN: | 1026-0226 1607-887X |