HOW LONG DO HOUSING CYCLES LAST? A DURATION ANALYSIS FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES
In this paper, I empirically study the amplitudes and durations of housing cycles in selected emerging countries. Using the Harding and Pagan (2002) approach, I identify peaks and troughs of house prices for 10 countries. I find that, on average, housing expansions last longer and have greater ampli...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Indonesian |
| Published: |
Bank Indonesia
2020-06-01
|
| Series: | Bulletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.bmeb-bi.org/index.php/BEMP/article/view/1295 |
| Summary: | In this paper, I empirically study the amplitudes and durations of housing cycles in selected emerging countries. Using the Harding and Pagan (2002) approach, I identify peaks and troughs of house prices for 10 countries. I find that, on average, housing expansions last longer and have greater amplitudes than housing contractions. I, then, estimate a discrete time survival model of housing expansions and contractions. I show that both contractions and expansions have positive duration dependence. I find that inflation and economic growth are useful predictors for the end of periods of expansions and contractions. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1410-8046 2460-9196 |