Heatwave Damage Prediction Using Random Forest Model in Korea

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, causing significant human and material losses every year. Big data, whose volumes are rapidly increasing, are expected to be used for preemptive responses. However, human cognitive abilities are limited, which can lead to ineffective...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Minsoo Park, Daekyo Jung, Seungsoo Lee, Seunghee Park
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2020-11-01
Series:Applied Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/22/8237
Description
Summary:Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, causing significant human and material losses every year. Big data, whose volumes are rapidly increasing, are expected to be used for preemptive responses. However, human cognitive abilities are limited, which can lead to ineffective decision making during disaster responses when artificial intelligence-based analysis models are not employed. Existing prediction models have limitations with regard to their validation, and most models focus only on heat-associated deaths. In this study, a random forest model was developed for the weekly prediction of heat-related damages on the basis of four years (2015–2018) of statistical, meteorological, and floating population data from South Korea. The model was evaluated through comparisons with other traditional regression models in terms of mean absolute error, root mean squared error, root mean squared logarithmic error, and coefficient of determination (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>). In a comparative analysis with observed values, the proposed model showed an <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> value of 0.804. The results show that the proposed model outperforms existing models. They also show that the floating population variable collected from mobile global positioning systems contributes more to predictions than the aggregate population variable.
ISSN:2076-3417