Five-Year Forecasting Deaths Caused by Traffic Accidents in Fars Province of Iran

• Main Authors: Mahnaz Yadollahi, Saeid Gholamzadeh
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Shiraz University of Medical Sciences 2019-10-01
• Series: Bulletin of Emergency and Trauma
• Subjects: accidents, traffic; mortality trend; population forecast; health policy
• Online Access: http://beat.sums.ac.ir/article_45811_898fe47f98a552caf27f75b3ed87f389.pdf

<strong>Objective:</strong> The aim of study was to conduct a time-based analysis to utilize the obtained knowledge for forecasting the trend of accidents in the future.<br /> <strong>Methods:</strong> The present study, which was conducted as a cross-sectional research, investigated deaths from traffic accidents in Fars Province during a five-year period from 2013 to 2018. The pseudo-regression model of Spline was used to predict the increase in mortality rate by 2021.<br /> <strong>Results:</strong> The forecasted values indicated a decline in deaths from traffic accidents by 2021. A total of 8020 records of accidents leading to death were included in the study. The mean mortality rate from traffic accidents in the province was approximately estimated to be 33.7 per 100,000 populations. More than half of the people who died (52.36%) were in a car, 25.57% were motorcycle riders, and 19.93% were pedestrians. The highest rate of deaths was observed in the age group of 16 to 25 years old (21.5%). The data indicated a reduction in the rate of death among car riders and pedestrians and an increase in the number of deaths among motorcycle riders. The trend of deaths occurred outside the city had been increasing while the trend of deaths occurred inside the city had been decreasing.<br /> <strong>Conclusion:</strong> The present regulations are only able to reduce a small number of deaths each year. In order to achieve a downward trend in mortality with a steeper pace, it is necessary to design and implement more intelligent standards, not merely the stricter ones.<br /> This project has been approved by the research ethic committee, as well as, supported with grant number of 97-01-38-17825 by Shiraz University of Medical Sciences in Shiraz, Iran.