Natural Gas Security in China: A Simulation of Evolutionary Trajectory and Obstacle Degree Analysis

• Main Authors: Mingjing Guo, Yan Bu, Jinhua Cheng, Ziyu Jiang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2018-12-01
• Series: Sustainability
• Subjects: natural gas security; evolution trajectory; obstacle degree; PSR model; exponential weighting method; GM(1,1) model
• Online Access: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/1/96

Studying the security status of China’s natural gas supply and proposing a feasible coping strategy for enhancing that security is of great significance. We use a pressure-state-response (PSR) analysis framework and the exponential weighting method to make a systematic evaluation of China’s natural gas security, predict the evolution of natural gas security combined with the GM(1,1) model, and use the obstacle degree model to diagnose the obstacles standing in the way of China’s optimum natural gas security. China’s natural gas comprehensive security index from 2006 to 2015 was between 0.627 and 0.740, and it is predicted to land between 0.669 and 0.759 from 2016 to 2025. The barriers affecting China’s natural gas security moving forward will be focused on urban development pressure, natural gas consumption growth pressure, supply-demand ratio, storage-production ratio, import price volatility for liquefied natural gas, and import dependence. We predict China’s natural gas security will be characterized by a wave of advancement, and has certain periodicity. The main internal factors affecting China’s natural gas security will shift from the rudimentary natural gas pipeline construction and gas storage facilities construction to the low availability of natural gas and urbanization, which will increase the pressure on natural gas supply and demand.