Carbon balance of forest ecosystems of the Volga river basin due to global warming: forecast landscape-ecological modeling

• Main Author: E. G. Kolomyts
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch Publishing House 2021-06-01
• Series: Сибирский лесной журнал
• Subjects: forests; regulation of carbon cycle; climate change; predictive empirical-statistical models
• Online Access: https://xn--80abmehbaibgnewcmzjeef0c.xn--p1ai/upload/iblock/324/32465fb997359ddd8db1b8fd43a95635.pdf
• ISSN: 2311-1410; 2312-2099

On the example of the Volga basin, based on the materials of large-scale landscape surveys, predictive empirical-statistical modeling of the carbon balance of boreal and nemoral forest biomes was carried out. One of the types of predictive ecological models is presented – within the framework of experimental landscape ecology. Methods for calculating and mapping the volumes of absorption/emission of greenhouse gases by forests under predicted climate changes are discussed. Based on global climate models, predictive estimates of the components of the carbon balance of forest ecosystems as integral formations and their influence on the carbon exchange of the earth’s surface with the atmosphere are given. For two climatic forecast scenarios: moderate and extreme, quantitative indicators of adsorption and emission of СО2 in various local and zonal-regional conditions of the East European subcontinent are given. It has been established that boreal forest ecosystems predominantly carry out cumulative regulation of the carbon cycle, which mitigates warming, while nemoral forests regulate emission regulation. The general softening effect of the forest cover of the Volga basin on climatic changes with the strengthening of the hydrothermal signal was revealed. It is shown that the process of thermal arid transformation of forest ecosystems leads to a general decrease in carbon accumulation in most groups of forest formations. The maps of the carbon content and the projected carbon balance of the main forest formations of the Volga basin for the moderate scenario of global warming allowed by the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (2015) are presented.