| Summary: | This study proposes a probability-based carbonation prediction approach for successful monitoring of deteriorating concrete structures. Over the last several decades, a number of researchers have studied the concrete carbonation prediction to estimate the long-term performance of carbonated concrete structures. Recently, probability-based durability analyses have been introduced to precisely estimate the carbonation of concrete structures. Since the carbonation of concrete structures, however, can be affected by material compositions as well as various environmental conditions, it is still a challenge to predict concrete carbonation in the field. In this study, the Fick’s first law and a Bayes’ theorem-based carbonation prediction approach is newly proposed using on-site data, which were obtained over 19 years. In particular, the effects of design parameters such as diffusion coefficient, concentration, absorption quantity of CO<sub>2</sub>, and the degree of hydration have been thoroughly considered in this study. The proposed probabilistic approach has shown a reliable prediction of concrete carbonation and remaining service life.
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