| Summary: | Climate change and human activities have changed a number of characteristics of river flow in the Taihu Basin. Based on long-term time series of hydrological data from 1986 to 2015, we analyzed variability in precipitation, water stage, water diversion from the Yangtze River, and net inflow into Taihu Lake with the Mann-Kendall test. The non-stationary relationship between precipitation and water stage was first analyzed for the Taihu Basin and the Wuchengxiyu (WCXY) sub-region. The optimized regional and urban regulation schemes were explored to tackle high water stage problems through the hydrodynamic model. The results showed the following: (1) The highest, lowest, and average Taihu Lake water stages of all months had increasing trends. The total net inflow into Taihu Lake from the Huxi (HX) sub-region and the Wangting Sluice increased significantly. (2) The Taihu Lake water stage decreased much more slowly after 2002; it was steadier and higher after 2002. After the construction of Wuxi urban flood control projects, the average water stage of the inner city was 0.16–0.40 m lower than that of suburbs in the flood season, leading to the transfer of flooding in inner cities to suburbs and increasing inflow from HX into Taihu Lake. (3) The regional optimized schemes were more satisfactory in not increasing the inner city flood control burden, thereby decreasing the average water stage by 0.04–0.13 m, and the highest water stage by 0.04–0.09 m for Taihu Lake and the sub-region in the flood season. Future flood control research should set the basin as the basic unit. Decreasing diversion and drainage lines along the Yangtze River can take an active role in flood control.
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