Discussing the Strehler-Mildvan model of mortality
BACKGROUND Half a century ago Strehler and Mildvan (1960) have published the seminal paper that, based on some assumptions (postulates), theoretically 'justified' the Gompertz law of mortality. OBJECTIVE We wish to discuss assumptions and limitations of the original Strehler-Mildva...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
2012-03-01
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| Series: | Demographic Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol26/9/ |
| Summary: | BACKGROUND Half a century ago Strehler and Mildvan (1960) have published the seminal paper that, based on some assumptions (postulates), theoretically 'justified' the Gompertz law of mortality. OBJECTIVE We wish to discuss assumptions and limitations of the original Strehler-Mildvan model (as well as of the Strehler-Mildvan correlation) and consider some modifications and departures from this model. METHODS We use the framework of stochastic point processes for analyzing the original Strehler-Mildvan model. We also suggest the 'lifesaving approach' for describing the departure from rectangularization to shifts in survival curves for human mortality that has been observed in the second half of the previous century. RESULTS We show that the Strehler-Mildvan model can be justified only under the additional assumption that the process of shocks (demands for energy) follows the Poisson pattern. We also suggest a modification that accounts for the oldest-old mortality plateau. |
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| ISSN: | 1435-9871 |