Statistical Modelling of 3-Hourly Wind Patterns in Melbourne, Australia

• Main Author: Mayuening Eso, Prashanth Gururaja and Rhysa McNeil
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Technoscience Publications 2021-06-01
• Series: Nature Environment and Pollution Technology
• Subjects: wind prevalence, wind gust, wind speed, logistic and linear regression
• Online Access: https://neptjournal.com/upload-images/(25)B-1137.pdf

Modelling wind speed and trends helps in estimating the energy produced from wind farms. This study uses statistical models to analyze wind patterns in Melbourne, Australia. Three-hourly wind data during 2004-2008 was obtained from the Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology, for Avalon Airport, Essendon Airport, Point Wilson, and View Bank stations. A logistic regression model was used to investigate the pattern of 3-hourly winds and gust prevalence while a linear regression model was applied to investigate wind speed trends. The 3-hour periods of the day, month, and year were used as the independent variables in the analysis. At four stations, wind speed and wind gust prevalence were mostly high between 9 AM and 6 PM. The monthly wind and wind gust prevalence were high from November to January while the highest annual prevalence occurred in 2007. The wind speed increased from 7 AM to 6 PM within which the maximum occurred. The monthly wind speed increased from November to January where it attained the maximum, decreasing to a minimum in May. The annual mean wind speed was highest in 2007.