On a possible approach to a sport game with discrete time simulation

• Main Authors: Roman Borisovich Priadein, Mikhail Yevgenievich Stepantsov
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Institute of Computer Science 2017-04-01
• Series: Компьютерные исследования и моделирование
• Subjects: mathematical modeling; simulation; statistical modeling; sport events
• Online Access: http://crm.ics.org.ru/uploads/crmissues/crm_2017_2/2017_02_09.pdf

The paper proposes an approach to simulation of a sport game, consisting of a discrete set of separate competitions. According to this approach, such a competition is considered as a random processes, generally - a non-Markovs one. At first we treat the flow of the game as a Markovs process, obtaining recursive relationship between the probabilities of achieving certain states of score in a tennis match, as well as secondary indicators of the game, such as expectation and variance of the number of serves to finish the game. Then we use a simulation system, modeling the match, to allow an arbitrary change of the probabilities of the outcomes in the competitions that compose the match. We, for instance, allow the probabilities to depend on the results of previous competitions. Therefore, this paper deals with a modification of the model, previously proposed by the authors for sports games with continuous time. The proposed approach allows to evaluate not only the probability of the final outcome of the match, but also the probabilities of reaching each of the possible intermediate results, as well as secondary indicators of the game, such as the number of separate competitions it takes to finish the match. The paper includes a detailed description of the construction of a simulation system for a game of a tennis match. Then we consider simulating a set and the whole tennis match by analogy. We show some statements concerning fairness of tennis serving rules, understood as independence of the outcome of a competition on the right to serve first. We perform simulation of a cancelled ATP series match, obtaining its most probable intermediate and final outcomes for three different possible variants of the course of the match. The main result of this paper is the developed method of simulation of the match, applicable not only to tennis, but also to other types of sports games with discrete time.