Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector

• Main Author: Levan Elbakidze
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Western Agricultural Economics Association 2008-08-01
• Series: Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
• Subjects: asymptomatic and symptomatic periods; avian influenza; contact rates; cost minimization
• Online Access: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/42463
• ISSN: 1068-5502; 2327-8285

This study presents a conceptual model for the analysis of avian influenza mitigation options within the small poultry farm sector (backyard flocks). The proposed model incorporates epidemiological susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) methodology into an economic cost-minimization framework. The model is used to investigate the implications and interdependencies of mitigation options that influence inter-flock contact rates of asymptomatic and symptomatic flocks, and reduce the duration of symptomatic and asymptomatic periods. The results indicates that for shorter asymptomatic periods the efforts to control inter-flock contract rates should concentrate on symptomatic flocks, while for longer asymptomatic periods the control of inter-flock contacts should be focused on asymptomatic flocks. Efforts to reduce the length of asymptomatic and symptomatic periods and efforts to reduce inter-flock contact rates function as substitute strategies.