Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests

Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests

Serious election forecasting has become a routine activity in most Western democracies, with various methodologies employed, for example, polls, models, prediction markets, and citizen forecasting. In the Netherlands, however, election forecasting has limited itself to the use of polls, mainly becau...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Ruth Dassonneville, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Philippe Mongrain
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2017-07-01
Series:Research & Politics
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168017720023
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spelling doaj-389824c9e46c4d7b981199ac38bf87bf2020-11-25T03:46:27ZengSAGE PublishingResearch & Politics2053-16802017-07-01410.1177/2053168017720023Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contestsRuth Dassonneville0Michael S. Lewis-Beck1Philippe Mongrain2Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, CanadaUniversity of Iowa, Iowa city, IA, USAUniversité de Montréal, Montréal, QC, CanadaSerious election forecasting has become a routine activity in most Western democracies, with various methodologies employed, for example, polls, models, prediction markets, and citizen forecasting. In the Netherlands, however, election forecasting has limited itself to the use of polls, mainly because other approaches are viewed as too complicated, given the great fragmentation of the Dutch party system. Here we challenge this view, offering the first structural forecasting model of legislative elections there. We find that a straightforward Political Economy equation managed an accurate forecast of the 2017 contest, clearly besting the efforts of the pollsters.https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168017720023
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Ruth Dassonneville
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Philippe Mongrain
spellingShingle Ruth Dassonneville
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Philippe Mongrain
Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
Research & Politics
author_facet Ruth Dassonneville
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Philippe Mongrain
author_sort Ruth Dassonneville
title Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
title_short Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
title_full Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
title_fullStr Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
title_sort forecasting dutch elections: an initial model from the march 2017 legislative contests
publisher SAGE Publishing
series Research & Politics
issn 2053-1680
publishDate 2017-07-01
description Serious election forecasting has become a routine activity in most Western democracies, with various methodologies employed, for example, polls, models, prediction markets, and citizen forecasting. In the Netherlands, however, election forecasting has limited itself to the use of polls, mainly because other approaches are viewed as too complicated, given the great fragmentation of the Dutch party system. Here we challenge this view, offering the first structural forecasting model of legislative elections there. We find that a straightforward Political Economy equation managed an accurate forecast of the 2017 contest, clearly besting the efforts of the pollsters.
url https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168017720023
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AT michaelslewisbeck forecastingdutchelectionsaninitialmodelfromthemarch2017legislativecontests
AT philippemongrain forecastingdutchelectionsaninitialmodelfromthemarch2017legislativecontests
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