WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS OPERATIONAL PROGNOSIS

• Main Authors: Bruno Santos Vieira, Enzo Morosini Frazzon, Lucila M. S. Campos
• Format: Article
• Language: Portuguese
• Published: Faculdades Metropolitanas Unidas 2016-12-01
• Series: Revista Metropolitana de Sustentabilidade
• Subjects: Simulação; Otimização; Sistemas de abastecimento de água
• Online Access: http://www.revistaseletronicas.fmu.br/index.php/rms/article/view/1086

The actions planning to minimize risks and ensure the effectiveness of water supply systems requires the use of appropriate forecasting models. In fact, forecasting the behavior and analysis of future scenarios can be supported with the use of techniques and simulation models. In this article, we propose a procedure to simulate the actions of decision-makers in planning the operation of this system type in order to obtain an operating and financial prognosis that consider dynamic influences. The applicability of the proposed procedure is demonstrated through an urban systems planning problem of water supply. As a result we obtained a system costs distribution odds, which improves decision making in the context of the analyzed system. Additionally, the proposed procedure is applicable to other types of complex systems subject to dynamic influences.