MIDDLE EAST: MORPHOLOGY OF AND POST-CONFLICT DESIGN

• Main Author: K. M. TRUEVTSEV
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Ассоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”) 2017-11-01
• Series: Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право
• Subjects: sunnies; shiites; alavites; islamists; el-qaeda; isil (isis); syria; iraq; iran; turkey; saudi arabia
• Online Access: https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/34

This article looks at the structure and the dynamics of the Middle  Eastern crisis set in motion by the events of the Arab Spring. At the  heart of the crisis was Syria, where antigovernment protests broke  out in early 2011, almost in parallel with other countries also  affected by the Arab Spring. Starting from late March 2011, the  unrest morphed into a civil war, leading to a large-scale crisis  engulfing the country by the end of the year. At first, the opposition  to the Syrian regime consisted of numerous groups with varying  political affiliations – from liberals to Islamists – however, by early  2012, radical Islamism came to dominate the opposition forces. And  by the end of the same year, the opposition was spearheaded by an  openly terrorist organization – the al-Nusra Front, an outgrowth of the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. Over the same period, regional  and international forces were becoming more and more involved in the Syrian crisis. Since 2012, in parallel with the Syrian crisis, there  has been another internal conflict raging in the Middle East, namely  in Iraq, with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) taking  the foreground and combining groups of Iraqi al-Qaeda militants  with Baathist underground forces. In 2014–2015, ISIL took hold of  large swaths of territory in Syria and Iraq, effectively turning the  Syrian civil war into a regional conflict. In addition to Syria and Iraq, the ongoing crisis has involved – either directly or indirectly – such actors as Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and a number of  other regional powers. Turkey has been indirectly involved in the  Syrian crisis since its very beginning, but starting from 2016 its  engagement in the conflict has become much more active – not only  in Syria, but also in Iraq. In 2013, Iran started to interfere in the  Syrian crisis directly, using its Shia allies, and expanded its presence onto Iraq in 2014. Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s participation in the  Syrian conflict has been indirect, mainly through military and  financial assistance provided to their clients inside the country. However, Saudi Arabia’s activities in Syria have started to decline in  2015, due to its military involvement in Yemen, which – in a broader  context – can be perceived as a peripheral component of  the large regional conflict. In addition to the above mentioned  components, one could also name a number of other equally important factors to the crisis. One of them is that the ranks of al- Nusra and ISIL militants have been reinforced not only by people  coming from the Arab countries, but also from the citizens of  Western Europe, North America and the former USSR. Another factor  has been the growing role of Kurdish groups in the  confrontation with the terrorists, especially with ISIL. This has led to  the creation of a Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria. At the same  time, an armed confrontation began in Turkish Kurdistan, which  Turkey views as a threat to its territorial integrity. The Syrian crisis has also been marked by involvement of global powers, such as the  US and Russia. The US-led international coalition has not succeeded  in changing the course of the conflict – on the other hand, Russia’s involvement since the second half of 2015 has made a significant  difference. With the end of the campaign against ISIL already in  view, and with the prospects for a successful intra- Syrian  settlement, it would seem reasonable to raise the question of the  post-conflict configuration of the region, which is discussed at the  end of the article.