Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI model

Abstract The strain on healthcare resources brought forth by the recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for efficient resource planning and allocation through the prediction of future consumption. Machine learning can predict resource utilization such as the need for hospitalization based...

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Main Authors: Amara Tariq, Leo Anthony Celi, Janice M. Newsome, Saptarshi Purkayastha, Neal Kumar Bhatia, Hari Trivedi, Judy Wawira Gichoya, Imon Banerjee
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Publishing Group 2021-06-01
Series:npj Digital Medicine
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00461-0
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spelling doaj-36af332facc2437695b030d5732ceb232021-06-06T11:45:10ZengNature Publishing Groupnpj Digital Medicine2398-63522021-06-01411910.1038/s41746-021-00461-0Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI modelAmara Tariq0Leo Anthony Celi1Janice M. Newsome2Saptarshi Purkayastha3Neal Kumar Bhatia4Hari Trivedi5Judy Wawira Gichoya6Imon Banerjee7Department of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, Emory UniversityMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Radiology and Imaging Sciences, School of Medicine, Emory UniversitySchool of Informatics Computing, Indiana University Purdue UniversityDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Emory UniversityDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, Emory UniversityDepartment of Radiology and Imaging Sciences, School of Medicine, Emory UniversityDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, Emory UniversityAbstract The strain on healthcare resources brought forth by the recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for efficient resource planning and allocation through the prediction of future consumption. Machine learning can predict resource utilization such as the need for hospitalization based on past medical data stored in electronic medical records (EMR). We conducted this study on 3194 patients (46% male with mean age 56.7 (±16.8), 56% African American, 7% Hispanic) flagged as COVID-19 positive cases in 12 centers under Emory Healthcare network from February 2020 to September 2020, to assess whether a COVID-19 positive patient’s need for hospitalization can be predicted at the time of RT-PCR test using the EMR data prior to the test. Five main modalities of EMR, i.e., demographics, medication, past medical procedures, comorbidities, and laboratory results, were used as features for predictive modeling, both individually and fused together using late, middle, and early fusion. Models were evaluated in terms of precision, recall, F1-score (within 95% confidence interval). The early fusion model is the most effective predictor with 84% overall F1-score [CI 82.1–86.1]. The predictive performance of the model drops by 6 % when using recent clinical data while omitting the long-term medical history. Feature importance analysis indicates that history of cardiovascular disease, emergency room visits in the past year prior to testing, and demographic factors are predictive of the disease trajectory. We conclude that fusion modeling using medical history and current treatment data can forecast the need for hospitalization for patients infected with COVID-19 at the time of the RT-PCR test.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00461-0
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Amara Tariq
Leo Anthony Celi
Janice M. Newsome
Saptarshi Purkayastha
Neal Kumar Bhatia
Hari Trivedi
Judy Wawira Gichoya
Imon Banerjee
spellingShingle Amara Tariq
Leo Anthony Celi
Janice M. Newsome
Saptarshi Purkayastha
Neal Kumar Bhatia
Hari Trivedi
Judy Wawira Gichoya
Imon Banerjee
Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI model
npj Digital Medicine
author_facet Amara Tariq
Leo Anthony Celi
Janice M. Newsome
Saptarshi Purkayastha
Neal Kumar Bhatia
Hari Trivedi
Judy Wawira Gichoya
Imon Banerjee
author_sort Amara Tariq
title Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI model
title_short Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI model
title_full Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI model
title_fullStr Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI model
title_full_unstemmed Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI model
title_sort patient-specific covid-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion ai model
publisher Nature Publishing Group
series npj Digital Medicine
issn 2398-6352
publishDate 2021-06-01
description Abstract The strain on healthcare resources brought forth by the recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for efficient resource planning and allocation through the prediction of future consumption. Machine learning can predict resource utilization such as the need for hospitalization based on past medical data stored in electronic medical records (EMR). We conducted this study on 3194 patients (46% male with mean age 56.7 (±16.8), 56% African American, 7% Hispanic) flagged as COVID-19 positive cases in 12 centers under Emory Healthcare network from February 2020 to September 2020, to assess whether a COVID-19 positive patient’s need for hospitalization can be predicted at the time of RT-PCR test using the EMR data prior to the test. Five main modalities of EMR, i.e., demographics, medication, past medical procedures, comorbidities, and laboratory results, were used as features for predictive modeling, both individually and fused together using late, middle, and early fusion. Models were evaluated in terms of precision, recall, F1-score (within 95% confidence interval). The early fusion model is the most effective predictor with 84% overall F1-score [CI 82.1–86.1]. The predictive performance of the model drops by 6 % when using recent clinical data while omitting the long-term medical history. Feature importance analysis indicates that history of cardiovascular disease, emergency room visits in the past year prior to testing, and demographic factors are predictive of the disease trajectory. We conclude that fusion modeling using medical history and current treatment data can forecast the need for hospitalization for patients infected with COVID-19 at the time of the RT-PCR test.
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00461-0
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