Investor Happiness and Predictability of the Realized Volatility of Oil Price
We use the the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) model to analyze both in sample and out-of-sample whether a measure of investor happiness predicts the daily realized volatility of oil-price returns, where we use high-frequency intraday data to measure realized volatility. Fu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2020-05-01
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| Series: | Sustainability |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/4309 |
| Summary: | We use the the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) model to analyze both in sample and out-of-sample whether a measure of investor happiness predicts the daily realized volatility of oil-price returns, where we use high-frequency intraday data to measure realized volatility. Full-sample estimates reveal that realized volatility is significantly negatively linked to investor happiness at a short forecast horizon. Similarly, out-of-sample results indicate that investor happiness significantly improves the accuracy of forecasts of realized volatility at a short forecast horizon. Results for a medium and a long forecast horizon are insignificant. We argue that our results shed light on the role played by speculation in oil products and the potential function of oil-related products as a hedge against risks in traditional financial assets. |
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| ISSN: | 2071-1050 |