Application of markov chain for the forecast monthly rainfall in Santa Catarina during el niño southern oscillation
This study aimed to obtain matrices of transition probability monthly rainfall in Santa Catarina during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Were used monthly rainfall data from September to April for the period 1958 to 2013 from nine stations located in different climatic regions of the State. For...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Portuguese |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
2017-09-01
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| Series: | Geosul |
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| Online Access: | https://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/geosul/article/view/35461 |
| Summary: | This study aimed to obtain matrices of transition probability monthly rainfall in Santa Catarina during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Were used monthly rainfall data from September to April for the period 1958 to 2013 from nine stations located in different climatic regions of the State. For matrices of probabilities, monthly rainfalls were divided in the following states: below (-1), inside (0) and above (1) climatology. The framework of the values of monthly rainfall in these states was based on quantile Q0,35 and Q0,65. The main results show that during El Niño there is a more defined pattern of rainfall, resulting in more efficient probabilistic forecasts through transition matrices, compared to La Niña years. Thus, the transition probability matrices can be used as an aid in forecasting monthly rainfall during ENSO events. |
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| ISSN: | 0103-3964 2177-5230 |