Non-Stochastic Argumentation in Predicting Economic Indices
This paper studies the use of statistical prognostics in predictions of short-term year-to-year evolution of GDP and other aggregate indices of the national accounts. It shows the utilisation of a non-stochastic prediction range to be used as a prediction tool that, to a certain extent, overcomes th...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Czech Statistical Office
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.czso.cz/documents/10180/143570303/32019721q1_marek_analyses.pdf/6344c3e2-2c39-4d98-ac8b-c9becdb40a43?version=1.1 |
| Summary: | This paper studies the use of statistical prognostics in predictions of short-term year-to-year evolution of GDP and other aggregate indices of the national accounts. It shows the utilisation of a non-stochastic prediction range to be used as a prediction tool that, to a certain extent, overcomes the validity of the ceteris paribus principle, on which most of the currently used stochastic approaches are based. The non-stochastic range is a resultant outcome of a wide assortment of time-series models; at the same time, a point forecast for short-term evolution is derived from the said assortment of models. We illustrate our methodology on a year-to-year evolution of GDP indices in France as a time series with a sufficiently large number of observations. |
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| ISSN: | 0322-788X 1804-8765 |