A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions
We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a ve...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Hindawi Limited
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/6289681 |
| Summary: | We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the future). To calculate the risk in the first scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process. The second model proposed in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective traveller during his/her infectiousness period. The result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93% and the result of the risk of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22%. |
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| ISSN: | 1748-670X 1748-6718 |