Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions

• Main Authors: Behrad Barghi, Shahram Shadrokh sikari
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2020-01-01
• Series: Heliyon
• Subjects: Project risks; Project management body of knowledge (PMBOK); Uncertainty; Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment approach; Mathematics; Probability theory
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844019367568

This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32 risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors' attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure.