Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.

Catastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in...

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Main Authors: Maarten C Boerlijst, Thomas Oudman, André M de Roos
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3623932?pdf=render
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spelling doaj-2f8792764dfd4a79a436edea5b69b4c22020-11-25T02:08:48ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032013-01-0184e6203310.1371/journal.pone.0062033Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.Maarten C BoerlijstThomas OudmanAndré M de RoosCatastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in relatively simple ecological models the most commonly used early warning signals for a catastrophic collapse can be silent. We underpin the mathematical reason for this phenomenon, which involves the direction of the eigenvectors of the system. Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3623932?pdf=render
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Maarten C Boerlijst
Thomas Oudman
André M de Roos
spellingShingle Maarten C Boerlijst
Thomas Oudman
André M de Roos
Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
PLoS ONE
author_facet Maarten C Boerlijst
Thomas Oudman
André M de Roos
author_sort Maarten C Boerlijst
title Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
title_short Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
title_full Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
title_fullStr Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
title_full_unstemmed Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
title_sort catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
series PLoS ONE
issn 1932-6203
publishDate 2013-01-01
description Catastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in relatively simple ecological models the most commonly used early warning signals for a catastrophic collapse can be silent. We underpin the mathematical reason for this phenomenon, which involves the direction of the eigenvectors of the system. Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred.
url http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3623932?pdf=render
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AT thomasoudman catastrophiccollapsecanoccurwithoutearlywarningexamplesofsilentcatastrophesinstructuredecologicalmodels
AT andremderoos catastrophiccollapsecanoccurwithoutearlywarningexamplesofsilentcatastrophesinstructuredecologicalmodels
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