| Summary: | HIV drug resistance is associated with faster clinical progression of AIDS. However, the effect of significant polymorphisms and mutational covariation on mortality among HIV/AIDS patients receiving long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART), have rarely been studied.In this prospective cohort study from December 2003 to December 2014, we present a new computational modelling approach based on bioinformatics-based models and several statistical methods to elucidate the molecular mechanisms involved in the acquisition of polymorphisms and mutations on death in HIV/AIDS patients receiving long-term ART in China.This study involved 654 ART-treated patients, who had been followed for 5473.4 person-years, a median of 9.8 years, and 178 died (25.2%, 3.3/100 person-years). The first regimens included AZT/d4T + NVP+ ddI (78.9%) or AZT/d4T + NVP+ 3TC (20.0%). We calculated an individual Ka/Ks value for each specific amino acid mutation. Result showed that 20 polymorphisms (E6D, Q18H, E35D, S37N, T39A, K43E, S68N, L74I, I93L, K103N, V106A, E169D, Y181C, G190A, Q197K, T200V, T200E, T215I, E224D and P225H) were strongly associated with AIDS related deaths. Among them, 7 polymorphisms (L74I, K103N, V106A, Y181C, G190A, T215I and P225H) were known to be drug resistance mutations, 7 polymorphisms (E6D, E35D, S37N, I93L, E169D, T200V and T200E were considered to be potential drug resistance mutations, and 6 polymorphisms (T39A, K43E, S68N, Q197K, T200V and E224D) were newly found to have an association with drug resistance mutations, which formed a complex network of relationships.Some polymorphisms and mutational covariation may be the important influencing factors in the failure of treatment. Understanding these mechanisms is essential for the development of new therapies, designing optimal drug combinations, and determining effective clinical management of individual patients.
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