THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

• Main Author: Marcela Lascsáková
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: 4S go, s.r.o. 2015-09-01
• Series: Acta Logistica
• Subjects: exponential approximation; numerical modelling; price forecasting; commodity exchange
• Online Access: http://www.actalogistica.eu/issues/2015/III_2015_02_Lascsakova.pdf

In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.