THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT
In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To m...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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4S go, s.r.o.
2015-09-01
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| Series: | Acta Logistica |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.actalogistica.eu/issues/2015/III_2015_02_Lascsakova.pdf |
| Summary: | In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges
was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution
of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more
accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having
analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most
accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original
model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate. |
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| ISSN: | 1339-5629 |