Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010
In Los Angeles, California, USA, 2 epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) disease have occurred since WNV was recognized in 2003. To assess which measure of risk was most predictive of human cases, we compared 3 measures: the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan Assessment, the...
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2012-08-01
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| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/18/8/11-1558_article |
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doaj-2c090649be374a2289dd0e674ddb3e762020-11-24T21:50:37ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592012-08-011881298130610.3201/eid1808.111558Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010Jennifer L. KwanBborie K. ParkTim E. CarpenterVan NgoRachel CivenWilliam K. ReisenIn Los Angeles, California, USA, 2 epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) disease have occurred since WNV was recognized in 2003. To assess which measure of risk was most predictive of human cases, we compared 3 measures: the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan Assessment, the vector index, and the Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system. A case–crossover study was performed by using symptom onset dates from 384 persons with WNV infection to determine their relative environmental exposure to high-risk conditions as measured by each method. Receiver-operating characteristic plots determined thresholds for each model, and the area under the curve was used to compare methods. We found that the best risk assessment model for human WNV cases included surveillance data from avian, mosquito, and climate sources.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/18/8/11-1558_articleWest Nile virusCulex pipiens quinquefasciatusrisk assessmentMantel-Haentzel relative riskLos Angelesarea under the curve (AUC) |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
Jennifer L. Kwan Bborie K. Park Tim E. Carpenter Van Ngo Rachel Civen William K. Reisen |
| spellingShingle |
Jennifer L. Kwan Bborie K. Park Tim E. Carpenter Van Ngo Rachel Civen William K. Reisen Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010 Emerging Infectious Diseases West Nile virus Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus risk assessment Mantel-Haentzel relative risk Los Angeles area under the curve (AUC) |
| author_facet |
Jennifer L. Kwan Bborie K. Park Tim E. Carpenter Van Ngo Rachel Civen William K. Reisen |
| author_sort |
Jennifer L. Kwan |
| title |
Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010 |
| title_short |
Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010 |
| title_full |
Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010 |
| title_fullStr |
Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010 |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010 |
| title_sort |
comparison of enzootic risk measures for predicting west nile disease, los angeles, california, usa, 2004–2010 |
| publisher |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| series |
Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| issn |
1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| publishDate |
2012-08-01 |
| description |
In Los Angeles, California, USA, 2 epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) disease have occurred since WNV was recognized in 2003. To assess which measure of risk was most predictive of human cases, we compared 3 measures: the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan Assessment, the vector index, and the Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system. A case–crossover study was performed by using symptom onset dates from 384 persons with WNV infection to determine their relative environmental exposure to high-risk conditions as measured by each method. Receiver-operating characteristic plots determined thresholds for each model, and the area under the curve was used to compare methods. We found that the best risk assessment model for human WNV cases included surveillance data from avian, mosquito, and climate sources. |
| topic |
West Nile virus Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus risk assessment Mantel-Haentzel relative risk Los Angeles area under the curve (AUC) |
| url |
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/18/8/11-1558_article |
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AT jenniferlkwan comparisonofenzooticriskmeasuresforpredictingwestnilediseaselosangelescaliforniausa20042010 AT bboriekpark comparisonofenzooticriskmeasuresforpredictingwestnilediseaselosangelescaliforniausa20042010 AT timecarpenter comparisonofenzooticriskmeasuresforpredictingwestnilediseaselosangelescaliforniausa20042010 AT vanngo comparisonofenzooticriskmeasuresforpredictingwestnilediseaselosangelescaliforniausa20042010 AT rachelciven comparisonofenzooticriskmeasuresforpredictingwestnilediseaselosangelescaliforniausa20042010 AT williamkreisen comparisonofenzooticriskmeasuresforpredictingwestnilediseaselosangelescaliforniausa20042010 |
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