| Summary: | Background. Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) can improve prognosis for stages II-IIIA patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but its implication in stage I patients is still an intractable puzzle. This study aims to seek ACT candidates for stage IB NSCLC and establish a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of specific patient for clinician’s decision. Method. We performed a retrospective study on 16,765 patients (ACT group: n = 2,187; non-ACT group: n = 14,578) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Overall survival was assessed in two groups. We performed propensity-score matching for risk adjustment. The risk factors were identified and used to create nomogram. Concordance index (C-index), Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and calibration were applied to evaluate model performance. To further evaluate the influence of tumor size on the selection of potential ACT candidates for patients with stage IB NSCLC, subgroup analyses were executed. Result. Survival analysis for the entire study cohort showed that ACT had better OS than non-ACT (HR = 0.800, CI: (0.751–0.851), P<0.0001). In matched cohort, ACT also presented better OS than non-ACT (HR = 0.775, CI: (0.704–0.853), P<0.0001). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that eight prognostic factors, including gender, age, grade, pathological subtype, tumor size, visceral pleural invasion, surgical procedure, and the number of removed lymph nodes, were significantly correlated with OS. The nomogram was further constructed based on these prognostic factors. The C-index of nomogram was 0.639 (95%CI: 0.632–0.646). The Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and calibration presented good congruence between the predictions and actual observations. Subgroup analyses of tumor size group showed that ACT shared similar OS to non-ACT in NSCLC patients with tumor size ≤20 mm (P>0.05). However, for NSCLC patients with 20 mm < size ≤30 mm (HR = 0.845, 95%CI (0.724–0.986), P=0.032) and 30 mm < size ≤40 mm (HR = 0.912, 95%CI (0.833–1.000), P=0.049), ACT associated with better OS. Conclusion. In this study, we found that ACT had better OS than non-ACT in patients with stage IB NSCLC. The nomogram provided an individual prediction of OS for patients after surgical resection. Patients with tumor size >20 mm and ≤40 mm may be potential candidates for ACT.
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