Quantifying the Uncertainty Related to Climate Change in the Assessment of Urban Flooding—A Case Study

• Main Authors: Lorena Liuzzo, Gabriele Freni
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2019-10-01
• Series: Water
• Subjects: flood risk; extreme rainfall; climate change; flo-2d; uncertainty analysis
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/10/2072

Recent studies have pointed out that climate change is likely to have important implications on the extent and frequency of flooding events. Indeed, the intensification of the water cycle occurring in different areas of the world can dramatically affect the incidence of extreme events and, consequently, the flow in rivers or artificial channels, increasing the probability of disastrous floods. In this context, the criteria for the assessment of flood risk need to be improved to take into account the variability of rainfall due to climate change. In this study, a Bayesian procedure was used to update the parameters of the depth−duration−frequency (DDF) curves and quantify the uncertainty related to their assessment in some climate change scenarios. The critical storm obtained from these updated DDF curves was used as input for the FLO-2D hydraulic model, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on flood risk. The area of study was an urban catchment in Piazza Armerina, a small town located in Southern Italy. Results showed that rainfall variations remarkably affect not only the magnitude of flood events, but also the flood susceptibility of the study area.