| Summary: | A marine ecosystem box model was developed to reproduce the seasonal variations nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomasses in Jiaozhou Bay (JZB) of China. Then, by removing each of the external sources of nutrients (river input, aquaculture, wastewater discharge, and atmospheric deposition) in the model calculation, we quantitatively estimated its influences on nutrient structure and the phytoplankton community. Removing the river input of nutrients enhanced silicate (SIL) limitation to diatoms (DIA) and decreased the ratio of DIA to flagellates (FLA); removing the aquaculture input of nutrients decreased FLA biomass because it provided less dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) but more dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP) as compared to the Redfield ratio; removing the wastewater input of nutrients changed the DIN concentration dramatically, but had a relatively weaker impact on the phytoplankton community than removing the aquaculture input; removing atmospheric deposition had a negligible influence on the model results. Based on these results, we suppose that the change in the external nutrients sources in the past several decades can explain the long-term variations in nutrient structure and phytoplankton community. Actually, the simulations for the 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s in JZB demonstrated the shift of limiting nutrients from DIP to SIL. A reasonable scenario for this is the decrease in riverine SIL and increase in DIP from aquaculture that has reduced DIA biomass, promoted the growth of FLA, and led to the miniaturization of the phytoplankton.
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