| Summary: | Biomarkers are widely used to confirm the presence of infection. However, it would be of the greatest importance to predict in advance the occurrence or worsening of organ dysfunction in infected patients allowing timely antibiotic escalation. This study investigates the ability of procalcitonin (PCT) and MR-proADM to predict the transition to sepsis in infected patients. The study was conducted in a neurointensive care unit over a three-month period. We included both patients with and without infection to investigate the specificity of organ dysfunction prediction in infected patients. Daily measurement of PCT and MR-proADM, SOFA, Pitt, and CPIS were performed. To measure the correlation between each biomarker and each severity score, linear mixed-effects models were developed. For each biomarker-score combination we tested the correlation of the score with the biomarker measured one and two days before, the same day, and the day after. Sixty-four critically ill patients, 31 with infection, were enrolled. The statistically significant biomarker-score combinations were PCT-SOFA, MR-proADM-SOFA, MR-proADM-Pitt, and MR-proADM-CPIS. The MR-proADM models predicting Pitt and CPIS variations with 24-hour anticipation showed the best fit. The scores increased by 0.6 ± 0.3 and 0.4 ± 0.2 for each unitary biomarker increase, respectively. The MR-proADM-SOFA combinations were equivalent when the biomarker was measured the day before or the same day (score increases were 1.5 ± 0.4 and 1.9 ± 0.4, respectively). The PCT-SOFA model had the best fit when PCT was measured the same day of the score. There was no difference in the predictive ability of the biomarker in infected and non-infected patients. This was a pivotal study conducted in a single neurointensive centre on a limited number of patients, and as such it does not provide definitive conclusions. PR-proADM predicted occurrence and worsening of organ failure in critically ill patients with and without infection. The combination with infection diagnostic biomarkers such as PCT would allow predicting evolution to sepsis in infected patients.
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