| Summary: | We studied the timing of breeding and juvenile/adult ratios among songbirds in temperate rain forests over four years on the Haida Gwaii (Queen Charlotte Islands) archipelago, British Columbia. In May 1998, air temperatures in Haida Gwaii were above average, whereas in 1999 they were the lowest in 20 yr: temperatures in the other two years were closer to normal, although 2001 was almost as cold as 1999. Temperatures closely followed the patterns of sea surface temperatures created by the 1997-1998 El Niño, i.e., warm, event and the subsequent strong La Niña, i.e., cool, event. Timing of breeding, as measured by the first capture of juveniles or by direct observations of hatching, varied by approximately 19 d between the earliest (1998) and latest (1999) years. In 1998, the proportion of juveniles among birds trapped increased steeply as soon as young birds began to appear. In other years, the rate of increase was slower. In 1999, the peak proportions of hatching-year individuals among the foliage-gleaning insectivores, i.e., the Orange-crowned Warbler (Vermivora celata), Townsend's Warbler (Dendroica townsendi), and the Golden-crowned Kinglet (Regulus satrapa), were lower than in other years, with almost no young Orange-crowned Warblers captured at all. The pattern of variation in the timing of breeding and in the proportion of hatching-year individuals trapped fitted the temperature data well, although rainfall may also have contributed. We concluded that changes mediated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in sea surface temperatures off northern British Columbia, through their effects on air temperatures, had a strong effect on the breeding of forest birds, to the point of causing nearly complete reproductive failure for one species in 1999. An intensification of the ENSO cycle could lead to more erratic reproduction for some species.
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