Long Term Trend Analysis in the Capital Market – The Case of Serbia

• Main Authors: Radukić Snežana, Radović Milica
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Sciendo 2014-09-01
• Series: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice
• Subjects: capital market; common index of the belgrade stock exchange - belexline; trend; moving averages; macd
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2014-0013

The paper explores the possibility of making investment decisions in emerging markets by using the trend analysis method on a particular example of the capital market in Serbia. The authors, starting from the common features of technical analysis, have analysed the common share index value in the capital market in Serbia, in the Belgrade Stock Exchange - Belexline from 1 March 2006 to 31 March 2009, by the usage of two moving averages method - Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): an intermediate term of 50 days and a long-term one of 100 days. The above mentioned moving averages identify the establishment of a trend, the cessation of the existing one, a change and an establishment of the new one.