Analysis of Transport Policy Effect on CO Emissions Based on System Dynamics

• Main Authors: Shuang Liu, Shaokuan Chen, Xiao Liang, Baohua Mao, Shunping Jia
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: SAGE Publishing 2015-01-01
• Series: Advances in Mechanical Engineering
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/323819

CO 2 emission from the transport sector attracts the attention of both transport and climate change policymakers because of its share in total green house gas emissions and the forecast of continuous growth reported in many countries. This paper takes the urban transport in Beijing as a case and builds a system dynamics model for analysis of the motorization trend and the assessment of CO 2 emissions mitigation policy. It is found that the urban transport condition and CO 2 emissions would be more serious with the growth of vehicle ownership and travel demand. Compared with the baseline do-nothing scenario, the CO 2 emissions could be reduced from 3.8% to 24.3% in 2020 by various transport policies. And the policy of controlling the number of passenger cars which has been carried out in Beijing and followed by some cities could achieve good results, which may help to increase the proportion of public transit to 55.6% and reduce the CO 2 emission by 18.3% compared with the baseline scenario in 2020.