Project Valuation and Risk Assessment in Food Product Development: Evidence from Fuzzy Real Option Valuation

• Main Authors: Pilvere Irina, Silovs Mihails, Ozolins Janis, Nipers Aleksejs, Dmitrijeva Olga
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Sciendo 2021-08-01
• Series: Rural Sustainability Research
• Subjects: new products; project valuation; sensitivity and real option analysis; uncertainty; fuzzy numbers
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.2478/plua-2021-0006

To survive in today's competitive environment, companies must continuously develop and offer customers new products. To increase the probability of a successful business case of investing in the development of a new product, careful attention must be paid to risk analysis in terms of the present value of future potential income. The article considers an example of the research work of the Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, in the framework of which a technical and technological project was developed to produce a new product, like Mediterranean anchovy, from cheaper Baltic sprats. The main goal of this work is to explore the application multi-factor sensitivity and fuzzy real option analysis to the valuation of new product development project.